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期债小幅收高 市场情绪依然谨慎

2017-04-14 08:14 作者: 来源: 本站 浏览: 我要评论(125条) 字号:

摘要:   □本报记者 马爽   昨日,国债期货小幅收高,10年期国债期货主力T1706合约最终涨0.11%。市场分析人士认为,央行重启流动性投放,给予市场一定的提振作用,但中期借贷便利(MLF)未有续做情况以及监管持续加强令后市情绪依然谨慎,短期期债料难改震荡格局。...

  □本报记者 马爽

  昨日,国债期货小幅收高,10年期国债期货主力T1706合约最终涨0.11%。市场分析人士认为,央行重启流动性投放,给予市场一定的提振作用,但中期借贷便利(MLF)未有续做情况以及监管持续加强令后市情绪依然谨慎,短期期债料难改震荡格局。

  期债高开高走

  昨日,国债期货高开高走,所有合约均小幅收涨。其中,10年期国债期货主力T1706合约高开于96.910元,早盘维持震荡调整,不过午后两点多,期价一度跳水并翻绿,最低下摸96.580元,随后又出现回升并实现小幅收高,最终报收96.905元,较上日结算价涨0.11%。与此同时,5年期国债期货主力TF1706合约收报99.050元,涨0.04%。

  资金面上,在连续13日暂停公开市场操作后,央行重启公开市场操作,昨日开展了1100亿元逆回购,并发放抵押补充贷款839亿元。昨日银行间市场资金面依旧宽裕,不过下周初缴税影响将明显加大,且由于本月为季度缴税,整体规模较大,市场对资金面预期仍偏谨慎。

  有交易员指出,虽然公开市场逆回购再度现身,但从央行同日搭配发放抵押补充贷款(PSL)的动作来看,昨日到期的中期借贷便利(MLF)大概率不会续做,其释放的政策信号依旧偏空,未来资金预期也难以特别乐观。

  经济数据方面,中国3月贸易数据靓丽。按人民币计,中国3月进口同比26.3%,预期15.0%,3月出口同比22.3%,预期8.0%,前值4.2%,3月贸易帐1643亿元,预期758亿元,前值-604亿元。

  交投情绪保持谨慎

  分析人士表示,近期需关注政策变动与央行后续操作,虽然央行重启流动性投放,但银监会连续发文加强监管,同业业务料受冲击,后市交投情绪将继续保持谨慎。

  华创证券认为,银监会监管继续升级,在未来监管逐步趋严的过程中债券市场压力还将继续释放;监管趋严使得一级市场招标偏弱,银行开始逐步对资产端进行清理,配置力量进一步减弱,未来伴随利率债供给的上升,有配置压力的机构可以逐步进行配置并获取较优的收益,不必过早担心“踏空风险”;后续应关注MLF是否续作及整体资金环境的变化,但央行连续13天回收流动性表达中性偏紧货币政策的执行决心,对未来流动性不宜过于乐观。

  国君固收覃汉表示,当前债市主要的关注点和担忧在于金融去杠杆的推进节奏以及资金面的波动情况,通胀下行不构成货币政策宽松的充要条件。债市短期难以摆脱慢熊震荡的格局,收益率上有顶下有底,10年国债收益率震荡区间为3.2-3.5%。

  宏源期货表示,4月以来,风险事件和市场情绪的扰动加强,近期需关注政策变动与央行后续操作,若金融监管升级+央行收紧货币政策进一步落实,则会在短期内给债市带来新的下行压力,期债操作上维持短期区间震荡判断。

原文地址: 期债小幅收高 市场情绪依然谨慎

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